Geographic range size and extinction risk assessment in nomadic species

Geographic range size is often conceptualized as a fixed attribute of a species and treated as such for the purposes of quantification of extinction risk; species occupying smaller geographic ranges are assumed to have a higher risk of extinction, all else being equal. However many species are mobile, and their movements range from relatively predictable to‐and‐fro migrations to complex irregular movements shown by nomadic species. These movements can lead to substantial temporary expansion and contraction of geographic ranges, potentially to levels which may pose an extinction risk. By linking occurrence data with environmental conditions at the time of observations of nomadic species, we modeled the dynamic distributions of 43 arid‐zone nomadic bird species across the Australian continent for each month over 11 years and calculated minimum range size and extent of fluctuation in geographic range size from these models. There was enormous variability in predicted spatial distribution over time; 10 species varied in estimated geographic range size by more than an order of magnitude, and 2 species varied by >2 orders of magnitude. During times of poor environmental conditions, several species not currently classified as globally threatened contracted their ranges to very small areas, despite their normally large geographic range size. This finding raises questions about the adequacy of conventional assessments of extinction risk based on static geographic range size (e.g., IUCN Red Listing). Climate change is predicted to affect the pattern of resource fluctuations across much of the southern hemisphere, where nomadism is the dominant form of animal movement, so it is critical we begin to understand the consequences of this for accurate threat assessment of nomadic species. Our approach provides a tool for discovering spatial dynamics in highly mobile species and can be used to unlock valuable information for improved extinction risk assessment and conservation planning.     

SMART-SREC: A stochastic model of the New Jersey solar renewable energy certificate market

Markets for solar renewable energy certificates (SRECs) are gaining in prominence in many states, stimulating growth of the US solar industry. However, SREC market prices have been extremely volatile, causing high risk to participants and potentially less investment in solar power generation. Such concerns necessitate the development of realistic, flexible and tractable models of SREC prices that capture the behavior of participants given the rules that govern the market. We propose an original stochastic model called SMART-SREC to fill this role, building on established ideas from the carbon pricing literature, and including a feedback mechanism for generation response to prices. We calibrate the model to the New Jersey market and backtest it, analyzing parameter sensitivity and demonstrating its ability to reproduce historical dynamics. Finally, we run simulations to investigate the role and impact of regulatory parameters, thus providing insight into the crucial role played by market design.     

纳米Ag粒子在我国主要类型土壤中的迁移转化过程与环境效应

随着纳米技术的快速发展,纳米材料进入环境并不断累积,因此开展纳米材料的环境安全性研究具有重要意义.纳米银(Ag NP)是目前应用最广泛的人工纳米材料之一.本课题组拟以Ag NP为研究对象,系统研究其在我国主要类型土壤中的迁移、转化过程及其生态环境效应;基于同步辐射技术、同位素技术和量子化学计算等方法,揭示Ag NP与土壤中主要矿物或有机质之间的相互作用规律;探明Ag NP对土壤中微生物、动物和植物的致毒过程及其作用机制;发展Ag NP在土壤中迁移的数学模型,预测其在土壤中的迁移、滞留通量进而评价其淋溶风险,为Ag NP的安全利用提供重要理论基础和技术支撑.     

雌二醇短期暴露对非洲爪蟾性腺和输卵管形态及性二态基因表达影响的初步研究

环境雌激素对两栖动物的生殖内分泌干扰作用已引起关注,目前的研究主要集中在长期暴露对性腺分化和发育的影响。以雌二醇(E2,10 nmol·L-1)为模式化合物,以非洲爪蟾为实验动物,6月龄的幼蛙暴露6 d,研究雌激素对性腺和输卵管形态以及性二态性基因表达的影响。结果发现,6 d的E2暴露对精巢和卵巢的形态没有明显影响,但从组织学结构来看对卵和精子的发育有微弱的促进作用。E2能够明显地促进了雌性输卵管的发育,表现为输卵管变粗变弯曲。E2暴露显著抑制精巢和卵巢中性激素合成相关基因cyp11a1、3βHSD、Srd5α、ARO的表达,对cyp17的表达无影响,使脑中LHβ和FSHβ的表达下调;对性别分化和性腺发育相关基因Dax、AR、ERα、TFⅢA、TBPL2的表达均无影响,但能够促进卵巢中Sox3的表达;同时促进脑中Emi2的表达,抑制脑中Dmrt1的表达。因此,输卵管可作为敏感的形态指标,性腺中Srd5α、cyp11a1、3βHSD、ARO、Sox3和脑中LHβ、FSHβ、Dmrt1、Emi2可作为分子指标。以上结果可为后续建立评价化学品对两栖动物雌激素效应的短期试验方法提供参考。     

滤料粒径对BAF小尺度下流场形态及挂膜速度的影响

为探讨颗粒粒径对曝气生物滤池(BAF)运行效果的影响,采用数值模拟和实验研究方法分析了滤料粒径对曝气生物滤池流场形态及挂膜速度的作用机理.选用5个颗粒尺寸结构空间作为计算区域,利用Fluent软件对相同颗粒间隙、不同颗粒粒径下BAF小尺度下的流场形态进行模拟分析,并通过对3种粒径下流线图、速度矢量图、压力分布及湍流强度变化的对比分析,发现颗粒粒径为3 mm时流场形态最好,最有利于气水混合及氧传质的进行.同时,为验证模拟结果的正确性,对同种材质、相同运行条件下3种不同颗粒粒径进行挂膜速度对比,通过考察挂膜启动28 d的COD去除率变化及污泥生物量的对比分析,发现颗粒粒径为3 mm时,运行最为稳定,系统运行第16 d时就达到了80%的COD去除效率.     

苯并芘对稀有鮈鲫的内分泌干扰效应研究

为评价典型有机污染物对长江三峡库区上游特有珍稀鱼类的环境风险,本实验以稀有鮈鲫为对象,研究了低剂量多环芳烃(PAHs)暴露而引起的内分泌干扰效应.将成年稀有鮈鲫暴露于不同浓度(0、0.1、0.3、1.0和3.0μg·L-1)的苯并芘(Ba P)中28 d,测定了体质系数、性激素含量、下丘脑-垂体-性腺(HPG)轴和肝脏中与繁殖相关基因的表达.结果显示:在雌鱼中,Ba P暴露后,睾酮(T)的含量显著升高,雌二醇(E2)的水平显著下降并改变了T/E2的比值;在雄鱼中,T和E2的含量都显著下降.雌雄鱼性激素的改变可能与类固醇合成相关基因(Cyp17、Cyp19a)表达量的改变有关.Ba P暴露显著抑制了雌雄鱼肝脏中卵黄蛋白原(VTG)基因的表达.以上检测到的激素或者基因表达的改变主要发生在高剂量(3.0μg·L-1)Ba P暴露下,而长江上游库区水体中多环芳烃含量较低(100 ng·L-1),因此推测,库区存在的多环芳烃不会对三峡库区上游水体中的鱼类产生内分泌干扰效应.     

Pollution levels and characteristics of phthalate esters in indoor air of offices

The pollution status and characteristics of PAEs (phthalate esters) were investigated in indoor air of offices, and PAEs of both gas-phase and particulate-phase were detected in all the samples. The concentration (sum of the gas phase and the particulate phase) was 4748.24 ng/m³, ranging between 3070.09 and 6700.14 ng/m³. Diethyl phthalate, dibutyl phthalate, and di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate were the most abundant compounds, together accounting for 70% of the Σ6PAEs. Dividing the particulate-phase PAEs into four size ranges (<2.5, 2.5-5, 5-10, >10 μm), the result indicated that PAEs in PM_2.5 were the most abundant, with the proportion of 72.64%. In addition, the PAE concentration in PM_2.5 correlated significantly with the total particulate-phase PAEs (R² = 0.85). Thus, the amount of PAEs in PM_2.5 can be estimated from the total amount of particulate-phase PAEs using this proportion. In a comparison between the offices and a newly decorated study room, it was found that pollution characteristics were similar between these two places. Thus, it is implied that the PAE concentration decreased by 50% 2 yr after decorating.     

Blast wave clearing behavior for positive and negative phases

The purpose of the research was to improve prediction of response of buildings to blast waves by including the negative phase and considering clearing of both positive and negative phases. Commonly used structural design practices, which trace their origins to military design manuals, often ignore the negative phase as well as positive phase clearing. For high explosive threats, this approach is conservative in most circumstances. However, negative phase clearing had not previously been studied for blast waves, and the implications for structural response had not been evaluated. This paper presents results of modeling negative phase blast clearing behavior for a typical blast wave and discusses the differences from positive phase clearing. The implications of including positive and negative phase clearing in building blast damage analysis are also investigated through single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) analyses.Blast waves from explosion sources like a vapor cloud explosion (VCE), pressure vessel burst or high explosive exhibit both positive and negative phases, and the relative magnitude of the positive and negative phases varies among explosion sources and the specific circumstances of each source. A fully reflected blast wave is produced if an incident blast wave were to strike an infinitely tall and wide wall in a normal orientation. Both the positive and negative phases of the blast wave are enhanced by the reflection process. However, when an incident blast wave strikes a wall of finite size in a normal orientation, rarefaction waves are created at the edges of the wall, and the rarefactions sweep down from the roof and inward from sides. The rarefaction waves result in a clearing effect for both the positive and negative phases.Clearing relieves some of the applied blast load on the reflected wall for the positive phase. However, this is not always the case for the negative phase. As shown by the results presented in this paper, clearing may either relieve or enhance the applied negative phase blast load, depending on the duration of the blast wave and the wall dimensions.The impact of negative phase clearing on structural response for generic building components was also investigated. Nonlinear SDOF methods were used to characterize response in terms of peak positive and negative displacements. It was found that the influence of the negative phase is significant and the peak structural response can occur during negative (outward) displacement.     

喷嘴直径对降尘效果影响的试验研究

为提高喷雾降尘效率,以改善作业环境,有必要研究喷嘴直径与降尘效果间的关系。基于自行设计的喷雾降尘试验系统,采用马尔文实时高速喷雾粒度分析仪、高速摄像仪及粉尘浓度测定仪对不同直径喷嘴的雾化特性参数和降尘效率进行测定。结果表明,在相同喷雾压力下,随着喷嘴直径的增大,全尘降尘效率持续增加,而呼吸性粉尘降尘效率先增加后减小,并在喷嘴直径为1.5 mm时达到最大值;在耗水量相同的情况下,随着喷嘴直径的增大,全尘和呼吸性粉尘降尘效率均下降。在井下喷雾降尘中,当耗水量不受限制时,为同时确保全尘和呼吸性粉尘降尘效率,宜选择直径为1.5 mm的喷嘴;当耗水量受限制时,宜选择直径为1.2 mm的喷嘴。     

环境烟草烟气粒径分布及其对光散射的影响

为了测量典型办公室内环境中环境烟草烟气悬浮颗粒物的数浓度和粒径分布变化,以及其对颗粒光散射的影响,在6.8 m×3.2mx2.8 m的试验间进行试验,采用测量范围为5～1 000 nm的DMS500扫描电迁移率粒径谱仪进行粒径测量.结果表明,不同卷烟样品的烟气粒径分布曲线近似,都可以用对数正态分布函数来描述.4种卷烟样品粒径分布及参数变化速率相似,在4 800 s内数中值粒径CMD平均值从105 nm增大至155 nm,几何标准差GSD平均值从1,58减小至1.45,CMD和GSD的变化趋势近似符合指数函数.利用基于Mueller光散射理论的程序计算烟颗粒对散射光的影响.粒径分布的变化显著改变了颗粒散射光强度,CMD最大使散射光强度增大7倍,GSD引起的强度变化较小.综合考虑烟气颗粒数浓度降低和粒径分布的变化,散射光强度最大增大3倍.